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tv   [untitled]    December 22, 2011 6:36pm-6:59pm EST

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and he said i quote that inflation in russia was expected at slightly over six percent this year a record low level comparable with european levels what contributed to this achievement from you our first the monetary situation before in say two fall isn't turn and. the. supply of money was very big more than thirty percent a year it most of the big pressure on the market this year fortunately will have only twenty one percent of my money additional money supply this is number one the second point is the much better food prices situation in both global demand and domestic dimension because in previous year it was very high pressure of the food prices on the index of headline inflation that is
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a number number two position and probably the what one is. exchange rate policy i mean now it's much more flexible so it's not very much dependent on the capital inflows and outflows and the pressure on the committee to cite also i mean the combination of these five factors helped us a lot control inflation how good are the chances to keep this low level of inflation next year maybe make it even lower we will have the plans. to have it less than six percent next year the corridor is a five point five to six that is not so easy but that is realistic. i mean. are we. as far as we're can predict
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the mantra situation it will most acceptable for for for at least the first half of the year probably all the twelve months of the year the. and the point we are not very much sure of is of course is the food food food prices it would be very much dependent of the harvest and other i would say technical things in russia in other countries but we can see it only closer to the middle of the year and also the w t o membership influenced food prices yes of course but not so high because we still have some period of time to adapt ourselves to the full membership of the of the cio. the russian economy i quote will grow food point two to four point five percent in two thousand and eleven putin said during the q. and a session with the nation this is not bad as
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a result of the year compared to other developed economies but if we take the brics country this is the lowest result among the brics among the emerging funds global economies worsened so that means that only russia is the main street you know we're just in the middle of them just in the middle of course the only not exactly brics . we're not exactly breaks and we're not exactly developed yet of course was something in the middle of that and very much dependence of our institutions are now economists close to make in which direction you know we will really follow in our future but anyway of course let's compare with the say america and europe one one point half moxon two percent of the grove but from the other side will have. and china will say nine. and percentage but they also have high inflation in here this year will have much higher inflation than russian federation
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and china not so high but close to it then why do we call or so of bricks because russia prefers to be the best kid in town the last kid in the city is that it's not the. name of this is one of the guys from goldman sachs. his is his label. so it doesn't really necessary to use the labels you have to understand better the real sense of the problems on the situation so i would say that we have not very high bar sustainable growth this year more than four percent the next c.e.o. bill it will be close to four probably little bit lower but around that so in a way it's about speaking about rating agencies we just got the news that that fitch has downgraded six biggest banks in the united states and europe
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bank of america goldman sachs b m p some of the well according to analysts these banks the dow then reading of these banks is going to influence the world financial situation will it influence that the banking situation in russia. depends the they are all of the right and agencies are quite content. controversial contradiction would say let's take this example then they done great the seventh rate of kinetic states it was absolutely zero influence to the markets zero influence so i believe that the little excess and investment bankers they prufrock to make their own analysis or to attract some independent then a little raised who pays the rating agencies. so you. but of course of course the situation of banks first in the eurozone but also in the united states that bonds
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in the balance sheets they have to leverage the european both sovereign and cup on that and of course that was a point of of dangerous point of notice but and of course it somehow influenced russian banks because as soon as the global markets the rate of stock exchange the rate of financial institutions first of all by was going down it influenced sosh and we can see that our biggest banks which are on the market like this about one call that could be losing their position keep keep it inside this situation. and the kind of high profits they see here are the it was fun that's dick result for see these bob anchal will get more than ten billion years dollars as a net profit the if it's a bill half mil and food and stuff probably because this is net profit and in that
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very situation that capital stock is going to just because of influence of the global financial situation says see when you kind of first deputy chairman of russia's central that spotlight will be back shortly after the break so stay with us we can see this into the. machine going to be soon. brighton if you knew about zoom from finest impression
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the sun. starts on t.v. dot com. witnesses. to history in the making of. testimony. ten stories that shapes two thousand and eleven on our t.v. .
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welcome back to spotlight i'm angry loving just to remind you that my guest on the show today is see you cry and he's the first deputy chairman of the russian central bank and we're discussing the financial results after two thousand and eleven and maybe what it's awaiting in two thousand and twelve mr lukash. the. i.m.f. and i would say mr perry bret he was interviewed by spotlight a couple of weeks ago and he said that russia has the potential to grow six percent per year he said that sitting in your chair would you agree with this assessment from the i.m.f.
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or. are honestly not so optimistic about the potential i believe in you know. future and global post focused not so high and the russian prosperous and not so high because well very much dependent on the global demand demand for commodities the month while i export and the demand pretty much dependence of the rate of growth in the parts of the world i very much believe that the general rate of awful going down i mean in developed countries will be something around one point half to two percent and even in emerging markets where will go down hopefully not so fast all is speaking about being pessimistic ex finance minister couldn't is a specimen stick as you are and he said a few days ago that the new wave of economic recession has already started and it's here in russia to do you share this point of view you know that expression that
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pessimistic is a well in. justin to say you're good out there and our money i mean. the comes to russia it was. the difference between mr good and miss terminology because i do not like words like crisis or wave of crisis i believe that this is a new reality a new market economics this is for a very long period of time and we cannot just easy come back to the good old times you say gold is ninety's always euro suzi begin only of the century then the global growth was in average around five four five percent i thought no or nothing of the good old with the seventy's there is. all this but gone. and that is the the problem there it's not that it's not not the you know damage or something we'll have to understand that that is
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the new normal it's in your reality and to conform and to prepare ourselves to that so it means that grows demand to see not so hard and this driver of russian economic growth will not work very fast of course there are other drivers it means consumer demand of the population and decide to go up most of all because of the growth of retail lending i said before that. general and in. will increase by twenty four twenty five percent but the detail to the consumers more than thirty percent and this is a driver for consumption in domestic consumption but there is a competition between the domestic production and import goods the here and the input is going up really fast and fought driver is investment growth but for that
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purpose will have. to you know create better and more friendly business environment to the investors well let's hear more from the russian prime minister here's what wedeman put in had to say the other day about the state of russian economy. the economy can we get our economy is expected to grow to rate of four point two four point five percent compared to one percent in europe many leading european economies in the united states will see no growth next year some european countries are going into recession there are fishel figures their economies are going to be in the minus it's not something we're excited about as it may affect us as well nonetheless our fundamentals are better and more stable there is another important index russia is third in the world by the size it was the gold and foreign currency reserves which we have restored almost to the pre-crisis level we also have a ten percent foreign debt that's minimal for countries we've developed economies
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that are below that. well now i have another quote from the i.m.f. and it's not so optimistic then what mr perec had to say this but let they say that russia if the crisis hits reality russia will have fewer resources on the budget side to respond then in two thousand and eight when we had this stabilization fund do we have enough reserves to respond to the crisis is today the things of course we'll have much less a resource knowledge then in two thousand years or so this is correct as all other countries because what was. the most important result of that was the fiscal position where half were great fiscal sockless around seven percent so we can spend money just to support internal demand now that the two
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previous years were for a deficit this year will. a fortune to her suppose something between zero point five and one percent of g.d.p. is discipline what it is not seven and we cannot just easily you know spend money to support demand in the country that is the main position i.m.f. . minutes from the other hand there is also the subtle but are pushed into the same very close to that we had before so i mean we can. we can support in turn or landen by our finance operation to supply liquidity to the banks and to help them to adapt themselves to the new reality and to continue land to the fire no bourse as far as i remember starting from the beginning of two thousand and eleven all russian politicians to the highest level were talking about investment
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attracting investment to russia and you've mentioned that to today but all this year we witnessed great capital outflow from british according to your analysis a year ago i mean central bank you said your forecast was thirty six billion dollars the the. capital outflow but actually it reached up to seventy four billion dollars is that true and what's the reason that is absolutely true but let's let's divide the problem into pieces that is that figure that is net private capital outflow the difference between inflow of gross in full and gross outflow. and half this iteration then really for instance for in direct investments goes to the country but some domestic capital is sick in the best person who is outside and in that case you have this negative result and it could
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be some other different reasons for it so mostly that amount of money this is money market that is money so we're not talking about money running away from russia. well we are also going to cut what what kind of money once again that is that and then now now we'll have we'll have chuck money along with money is money in the money market so that is in money installment in the port it's in some boards in accounts in the banks and so on so for now then the situation in europe in terms of liquidity is very acute it means that our banks and companies cannot refinance that that. therefore in debt and they've had to wait just in accordance with the additional scale for instance it means that in the two to last a month they have to pay around twenty billion dollars or something like that and that is the reason they have talked humiliate money here and fight back to the
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creditors outside of the country but the really important point is direct foreign investment and that is materialized money money invested in the real assets in industries in different kind of businesses and of course that amount of money cannot be you know easily go in and out this is more conservative invest more long term invest and we would rather attack this kind of a must but anyway this is a money seventy four billion means that the central belt is a monetary authorities stopped and that it or obols before would just buy the currency and we you know supply the economy with the rubles by that correction now beginning from september we do not buy. we even sell
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something from our results to the market and it mr allies are obols from form the market in the russia that is the problem not the seventy four is a figure but this situation in the west money market and some banks. at the problems with the community and will have to. propose some specific measures to help them. as far as i understand the russian government is not planning to raise taxes to to compensate for the losses in budget revenues what about the central bank are you favor because what we have the lowest taxes in europe lowest income tax at least it is the central bank in favor of raising taxes no no no we are not like ours in taxes of course but you see you have somehow balance your budget you have free options number one you know to cut your spending in number two to increase your i mean yes and number three to borrow. i believe the first
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position is but it is best so if you're in a position to rationalize somehow you're spondon to have better structure for expenditures and to cut the some extra expenditures you have and that's the reason for you not to write race anything from the market and not guys your taxes thank you thank you very much the only problem is that it's election year and that governments don't like to tell tales to cut extensions shoes that will actually stay on the porch and they get this was alex sable your guy a top aide on the far life and he's the first deputy chairman of the russian central bank that's it but after all if you want to have your say on fog lights or have someone in mind to you think asian in phoenix trying to drop a line would be that with more personal comments on what's going on in and outside russia and so then they are to to tend. that's
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a. good .
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